DEFENSE ONE: F-35s are piling up on Lockheed tarmacs, presenting ‘unique’ risks to the Pentagon

Lockheed Martin assembles F-35s at its plant in Fort Worth, Texas. Lockheed Martin

The program is trying to quash bugs that force pilots to reboot in midair, GAO says.

Audrey Decker |

May 16, 2024

The Pentagon has refused delivery of so many F-35s that Lockheed Martin is running out of places to put them, according to a new report from a government watchdog agency.

Last July, the government stopped accepting new F-35s because of hardware and software delays with Technology Refresh-3, a $1.8-billion effort to enable new capabilities for the jet. 

The number of jets accumulating outside Lockheed’s plant is “grossly delinquent,” Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Va., chairman of the House Armed Services tactical air and land forces subcommittee, told reporters Wednesday. 

“We know one thing for certain: it’s going to be at least over 100 aircraft stacked up on the tarmac,” Wittman said. 

The GAO report did not say how many aircraft are currently parked, saying the Defense Department deemed that figure “unsuitable for public release.”

But the report said that Lockheed would need to rethink its plans.

“If TR-3 software is delayed past April 2024, Lockheed Martin is projected to exceed its maximum parking capacity and will need to develop a plan to accommodate more parked planes,” it said.

Lockheed officials say they have all the infrastructure and capacity they need to park the aircraft until they are ready for delivery. 

“Specific details about parking will not be shared due to security considerations,” officials said in a May 16 statement. 

The situation is financial pain for Lockheed: the Pentagon is withholding payments of $7 million for each undelivered TR-3 jet, Bloomberg previously reported. 

The government as well will face “significant liability” if any of the parked aircraft get damaged or lost while sitting at Lockheed’s facilities, according to the report. 

“It is unique for so many critical DOD aircraft to be waiting for DOD acceptance, instead of stored at lower densities across many military locations throughout the world. This creates unique financial and schedule risks to DOD,” GAO said. 

Once the TR-3 upgrade is ready, it will take about a year to deliver all of the jets Lockheed has parked, GAO said. 

But challenges with software stability and delayed hardware are pushing the delivery of full TR-3 capability to 2025, the report said. The first TR-3 jets were supposed to be delivered last July.   

The Pentagon is working on a plan to restart accepting the jets without the full TR-3 upgrade because, officials say, a part-capability is better than nothing. Those deliveries could start up as soon as July, officials say, but the interim version of the upgrade won’t be combat-ready and will only be used in training. 

“According to program officials, this initial TR-3 software will allow the program to accept delivered aircraft but not deliver any new capabilities to the aircraft. TR-3 software with new capabilities will not be delivered until 2025, two years later than originally planned. This means the warfighter will continue to wait for these critical upgrades,” GAO said. 

Specifically, the TR-3 software has had trouble supporting the F-35’s radar and electronic warfare systems. Some test pilots have said that they had to reboot their radar and

electronic warfare systems mid-flight, according to the report. 

“Program officials stated that early versions of radar and in-flight systems software can commonly experience rebooting issues. However, even after being nearly a year delayed, TR-3 software continues to be unstable, according to test officials,” GAO said. 

House lawmakers have grown so frustrated with the program that they have proposed cutting the Pentagon’s F-35 buy in the House Armed Services chairman’s mark of the fiscal 2025 policy bill—and fencing off the delivery of 10 more jets until problems are addressed. 

The proposed bill would take the resources that were allocated to buy more jets and use them to create a digital twin of the F-35 and an integrated software laboratory. It’s “astounding” that Lockheed hasn’t modernized how it develops software and hardware for the program, Wittman said. 

“We also believe that the resources from the 10 aircraft that will go to an integrated software laboratory, to digital twin testing, to additional test beds—all those things are capabilities that should have been done years ago and haven’t been done and that’s why we’re so far behind where we are today. So we are saying, you know what, we’re not going to leave this to chance anymore. We’re going to take an active role,” Wittman said. 

The F-35 program is on track to cost over $2 trillion, making it the world’s most expensive weapons program.

D/C: https://www.defenseone.com/business/2024/05/f-35s-are-piling-lockheed-tarmacs-presenting-unique-risks-pentagon/396646/

GOV.UK:

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/cutting-edge-drone-killer-radio-wave-weapon-developing-at-pace

Cutting-edge drone killer radio wave weapon developing at pace

A new game-changing weapon that uses radio waves to disable enemy electronics and take down multiple drones at once is under development for the UK’s armed forces. From: Ministry of Defence, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory and James Cartlidge MP Published 16 May 2024

The Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon

• System can neutralise a swarm of drones for 10p a shot.
• UK designed and built system offers operational advantage and battlefield protection
• UK Armed Forces will be operating with this technology in the coming years

A new game-changing weapon that uses radio waves to disable enemy electronics and take down multiple drones at once is under development for the UK’s armed forces. 

This forms part of work to put the UK’s defence industry on a war footing following the Prime Minister’s announcement last month of an increase to the defence budget to 2.5% of GDP by 2030.

An example of a Radio Frequency Directed Energy Weapon (RFDEW), the versatile system can detect, track and engage a range of threats across land, air and sea. The system will be able to effect targets up to 1km away, with further development in extending the range ongoing. It beams radio waves to disrupt or damage the critical electronic components of enemy vehicles causing them to stop in their tracks or fall out of the sky.

At only 10p per shot fired, the RFDEW beam is a significant cost-effective alternative to traditional missile-based, air defence systems, capable of downing dangerous drone swarms with instant effect. The high level of automation also means the system itself can be operated by a single person. This technology can offer a solution to protection and defence of critical assets and bases.

Minister for Defence Procurement, James Cartlidge said:

We are already a force to be reckoned with on science and technology, and developments like RFDEW not only make our personnel more lethal and better protected on the battlefield, but also keep the UK a world leader on innovative military kit.

The war in Ukraine has shown us the importance of deploying uncrewed systems, but we must be able to defend against them too. As we ramp up our defence spending in the coming years, our Defence Drone Strategy will ensure we are at the forefront of this warfighting evolution.

RFDEW technology can be mounted on a variety of military vehicles and uses a mobile power source to produce pulses of Radio Frequency energy in a beam that can rapidly fire sequenced shots at individual targets or be broadened to simultaneously engage all threats within that beam.

Dstl Chief Executive, Paul Hollinshead said:

These game changing systems will deliver decisive operational advantage to the UK armed forces, saving lives and defeating deadly threats.

World class capabilities such as this are only possible because of decades of research, expertise and investment in science and technology at Dstl and our partners in UK industry.

The advanced technology is being developed by a joint team from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) and Defence Equipment & Support (DE&S), working with UK industry under Project Hersa. The next steps for RFDEW is undergoing extensive field testing with British soldiers over the summer.

D/C: Hurry up!

SCMP: Chinese team creates drones with ‘human brains’ able to tackle complex tasks through group chats

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2023/03/19/australia-issues-new-sanctions-on-iran-over-human-rights-abuses-supply-of-drones-to-russia-well-done-australia-wish-we-would-follow-suit/

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/?s=drones

NP: Canadian general derailed by scandal

Lt.-Gen. Steven Whelan’s career was derailed by now-withdrawn sex misconduct charges, but he remains committed to rebuilding Canada’s military.

Donna Kennedy-Glans,  Special to National Post

Published Nov 05, 2023  •  Last updated 1 day ago  •  5 minute read

187 Comments

The sexual misconduct allegations are “like poison for the rest of your life,” Lt.-Gen. Steven Whelan says. “That’s why I need to apply for some kind of restitution.” Photo by Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press/File

This is a conversation series by Donna Kennedy-Glans, a writer and former Alberta cabinet minister, featuring newsmakers and intriguing personalities. 

I spoke to Lt.-Gen. Steven Whelan not long after military prosecutors withdrew the two sexual misconduct charges that effectively ended his distinguished career. I expected to find a bitter man.

Instead, I found a soldier full of dignity, one who remains committed to rebuilding Canada’s military as a trusted institution.

“My mom was French Canadian, and my father was Indigenous. Neither one raised me to complain,” Whelan explains.

“I just want to see the organization, the system, the architecture, change for the better.”

In 2022, Whelan was charged with two counts of “conduct to the prejudice of good order and discipline” under the National Defence Act for misconduct alleged to have taken place more than a decade ago, and faced a court martial in Gatineau, Que., this September.

At the trial’s outset, military prosecutors inexplicably dropped the more serious allegation of improperly communicating with a female subordinate (flirting, in colloquial terms) and a week later, dropped the remaining charge accusing Whelan of enhancing the same subordinate’s performance evaluation in 2011, allegedly fearing she would disclose their relationship to others.

Young people look at how the Forces is managing itself and think, I don’t want to be part of that. It’s an organization that eats its own

It was a technical win for Whelan and his legal team, but it deprived him of the ability to tell his story. Another setback for a man who gave 40 years to the Canadian military. It’s amazing to me that anyone treated so shabbily — one more officer in a string of senior military men purged from the Canadian Armed Forces — can remain so loyal.

This three-star general claims to not carry a grudge, asks that I not name names, and assures me a publicly funded windfall from the Forces isn’t his first priority. His lawyer is, however, gearing up for a lawsuit of his own, citing prosecutorial misconduct, negligent investigation and malicious prosecution. Someone has to be held accountable if the organization is to change for the better.

And this 56-year-old soldier knows he must be practical. He won the day in military court, but the allegations compromise his future. “I would rather have faced a Mark Norman situation (unproven ethical breaches) than be roped into a sexual misconduct or assault allegation. It’s like poison for the rest of your life,” Whelan shares, soberly. “That’s why I need to apply for some kind of restitution.”

The only time Whelan chokes up is talking about how he and his family were made aware of the misconduct allegations, two years ago. Someone within the CAF leaked the investigation to the media and Whelan was given 20 minutes notice that a news story was coming out accusing him of sexual misconduct. “I told my family right away, I’ve got this allegation. And that generated some tough discussions with my wife and some direct questions. I was like ‘no,’ ” Whelan says, his voice pained. “That is a moment of trauma that will stay with me forever.”

Before being removed from command, Whelan was responsible for recruitment. Attracting and retaining military personnel is a challenge; the CAF operates with roughly 65,000 men and women and is presently 15,000 short. “You hear people say ‘they have a recruiting issue because of all the senior officer allegations,’ but that’s not the case,” Whelan asserts. “The case is young people look at how the Forces is managing itself and think, I don’t want to be part of that. It’s an organization that eats its own. If they are willing to chew up all their senior leaders, what will they do to me?”

Even in the few weeks since the conclusion of the court martial, global security has been shaken. There are 300 CAF personnel reportedly heading to the Middle East. What role Canadians will assume in the Israel versus Hamas war is yet to be defined (and we can’t forget that Bill Blair, minister of national defence, remains obligated to find $1 billion in cost savings in DND’s budget).

But one thing is certain: Whelan’s decades of on-the-ground military experience in hot spots like the West Bank, Iraq and Afghanistan no longer matter. He’s been sidelined. He remains on administrative leave and anticipates he’ll be formally released from the military.

If given the chance, I ask, what would or could Whelan do to revive the CAF’s esprit d’corps.

“There is no vision (for the CAF) other than a social experiment agenda. We’ve substituted what should be operational effectiveness and ability with culture,” he laments, “and that doesn’t resonate with people.”

To counter the military’s obsession with dress policies and sexual misconduct and to focus instead on building the capacity of soldiers, sailors and aviators to deal with problems in the world, Whelan is recommending the military start looking at its priorities through the lens of what Canadians expect rather than through the lens of the federal government’s social agenda.

The military necessarily answers to civilian leadership, I point out, and Whelan agrees, so politics is necessarily involved. But sometimes it’s too much, he continues: “The pressure that senior (military) leaders feel from the political operatives is immense and sometimes it’s easier to just nod your head and meet it as best as you can.”

Whelan understands that his approach — to provide fearless advice to government — may have made him vulnerable.

But he contends he wouldn’t do things differently. And now that he’s been dragged through a court martial and witnessed what he calls “the chicanery” of Canada’s military justice system, he’s still advocating for transparency. Rather than relying on the Forces’ internal complaints process, Whelan is seriously considering sending a letter to the Parliamentary defence committee, asking for public hearings. Why? He wants Canadians to be able to hear the stories of how the system let down the most senior officers of the CAF.

“We don’t have a military culture here in Canada,” Whelan observes. “We’re safe, so to speak. With oceans between us and Europe, and between us and Asia, Canadians don’t feel the pressure of Russian or Chinese forces on our borders and we have the luxury of Americans to our south.”

As Canadians’ sense of security shifts, so too may the tide turn within the military. “The focus is now switching,” he suggests, “being redirected from those of us who were under allegation and now it’s shining on the senior officers involved in managing the process … and the military justice system.”

D/C: Glad he is finding his voice .. poor family!

CBC: High cost of living dragging down Armed Forces morale, chaplain general warns

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Changes to a cost-of-living benefit left many members feeling ‘undervalued’ — Brig.-Gen. Guy Bélisle

Murray Brewster · CBC News · Posted: Oct 07, 2023 4:00 AM EDT | Last Updated: 7 hours ago

Canadian Forces personnel are feeling the bite of inflation and it’s undermining their morale, says Chaplain General Brig.-Gen. Guy Bélisle. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press)

Military chaplains are seeing an increasing number of soldiers, sailors and aircrew who — squeezed by the high cost of living and stuck in a system that forces them to relocate — are in financial distress and seeking assistance.

That disturbing assessment is found in the latest report to Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre from Canadian Forces Chaplain General Brig.-Gen. Guy Bélisle. A copy of the report was obtained by CBC News.

The report found that military morale is flagging for a variety of reasons.

“The past six months have been very difficult for many CAF members and their families as they struggle to find a way forward through the economic, social and cultural realities and changes that are confronting all Canadians in these uncertain times,” said the July 26, 2023 briefing note from Bélisle.

The assessment zeros in on recent changes to the Post Living Differential (PLD) — which helps military members offset the cost of living and frequent moves — as the biggest factor in discontent within the ranks.

“Though unintended, these changes, concurrent with CAF efforts to reconstitute the Force, has resulted in many CAF leaders and members feeling more undervalued and underappreciated than at any point in recent memory,” said the briefing note, written just weeks after the changes to the PLD came into effect.

“The morale of members across the CAF was assessed by chaplains in this reporting period to be notably lower than during the last few reporting periods, due to several key factors and realities … changes to PLD, the increasing lack of affordable housing, the rising cost of living, and staff shortages all contributed to exacerbating the tensions and challenges being experienced by members and their families.”

The new PLD policy was a work-in-progress for almost a decade and a half. It took effect in July and was meant to help lower-ranking members cope with steep housing costs in Canadian cities.

But several thousand high-ranking members who had been receiving the housing offset now face the prospect of being cut off from the benefit.

Chaplains hearing pleas for funds to cover rising costs

Bélisle’s report says chaplains at bases across the country are hearing from those members, who say “the end of PLD will have a significant negative impact on them financially and will also be a determining factor in their decision to seek advancement, postings, or remain in the CAF.

“Many chaplains continue to report increases in requests for funds to assist members who are unable to meet the growing costs of housing and food.”

The briefing said that support agencies and charities, such as the military family support foundation Together We Stand (TWS), have cushioned the blow only slightly.

“However, despite such generosity, support from organizations like TWS can only be viewed as a short-term solution for members who are facing increased significant financial and other issues,” the report said.

The briefing concluded that recent changes to the internal professional evaluation system, known as PaCE, are also having a negative impact on military members.

Efforts to reform military culture taking root: Bélisle

Bélisle also noted that recent efforts at reforming the Canadian Forces’ culture — including changes intended to stamp out sexual misconduct and improve the responsiveness of senior officers — are starting to be accepted and even appreciated in the ranks.

“On the positive side, some members have noted that their workplace appears to be getting psychologically safer, and that there is less of a taboo now on communicating issues with [chains of command],” he wrote.

“Leaders at all levels generally seem to be trying more to take seriously the difficulties that some members are going through, while recognizing the benefits of being flexible with members who are trying to get the help they need (e.g., being more generous in the interpretation of compassionate situations and the granting of leave; accommodating members by allowing and supporting more flexible work schedules).”

Military housing at CFB Trenton in southeastern Ontario. (James Murray/CBC )

In an interview with CBC News, Bélisle said that while military morale has taken a hit since his previous assessments, it’s not the lowest he’s seen in his more than three decades in uniform.

“One thing is very important to say, and that is CAF members and their families are facing right now the same challenges as other Canadians,” he said. “They are struggling with the effects of the pandemic, the rising costs of leaving larger mortgage payments, access to family doctors, and the pace of change across our whole society.”

To soften the impact of changes to the PLD, the Department of National Defence has introduced a transitional program called the Provisional Post-Living Differential that will slowly reduce the amount of money they receive between now and 2026.

It’s also introducing something called the Canadian Forces Housing Differential (CFHD). The new benefit is specifically focused on housing affordability, rather than the cost of living, which is how the PLD is calculated.

In a background statement, the department pointed out that ordinary military members recently received a 12 per cent pay increase, stretched out over four years and retroactive to 2021.

Bélisle said his chaplains try to counsel confidence and patience.

“As chaplains, we’re there to bring hope, we’re there to support, we’re there to be with them and walk with them through that difficult period,” he said. “And we’ve got a lot of hope.”

D/C: One wonders how many of the best and brightest will remain! What an absolute disgrace!

WOW! The Canadian media really, really dislikes Blair. Now why would Trudeau replace Anand who is doing the first decent job as Defence Minister in years .. Mmmmm .. Let me see .. She would make a very capable female Liberal leader?

G&M: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeaus-cabinet-shuffle-deals-a-blow-to-canadas-nato-defence-promises

“Replacing Anita Anand with Bill Blair as Defence Minister reveals the hypocrisy of Justin Trudeau’s promise at the recent NATO meeting in Vilnius to invest in Canada’s military.

Wednesday’s cabinet shuffle revealed the true worth – that is, no worth at all – of that promise.”

‘https://theline.substack.com/p/emergency-dispatch-the-blair-switch?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

“In what is probably the greatest insult a Canadian government has given the Canadian Armed Forces since the Ross Rifle, Bill Blair is now the Minister of National Defence. It’s hard to underscore exactly how bad an idea this is. Blair’s term at Public Safety — there’s that damned ministry again, eh? — ranged from dragging his heels on calling a public inquiry into the Portapique massacre in Nova Scotia, to overseeing a largely failed attempt to shift RCMP culture, to being the minister who first received intelligence that China was targeting MPs with foreign interference operations and didn’t do anything about it.

And now he’s in charge of the federal government’s single largest, and most complex, bureaucracy. “

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/trudeau-shows-disregard-for-military-by-replacing-capable-minister-in-time-of-crisis

Trudeau shows disregard for military by replacing capable minister in time of crisis

There was no need to move Anita Anand out of defence, especially at this critical timeWhat a ghastly time for the Canadian Armed Forces to be burdened with a new minister. In the middle of the ongoing defence policy review, increased operational commitments, the difficulty reaching two per cent of GDP in defence expenditures, an ongoing armed conflict on the borders of NATO, a personnel crisis, the need to re-equip the Forces and the so-called culture crisis, the department’s focus will be diverted by the requirement to brief a new minister.”

“Many Canadians are aware of the upheavals the CAF has gone through over the last few years. But Wednesday’s cabinet shuffle, in which it was announced that Anita Anand would be leaving the defence portfolio, makes it seem as though Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is wholly unaware of what has been going on.

Had he been, he might have ensured that the stability of the Department of National Defence would continue by leaving Anand in her role. DND is the department with the largest discretionary budget — one reason why it is easy to make cuts to it — and it is also probably the most complex portfolio of all.

From what I’ve heard, Anand has been very good at her job, even though she supports the Liberals’ progressive agenda. There was no need to move her, especially at this critical time. But then again, that might be why she was moved: she was too good and defence was getting too much attention, or she was really needed to right the ship at Treasury Board.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/27/trudeau-cabinet-shuffle-defense-blair-anand-00108400

“OTTAWA, Ont. — As Canada faces mounting pressure from the Biden administration to increase military spending, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a surprise move swapping his defense minister with a former police chief.

Trudeau tapped Bill Blair to manage Canada’s military, dispatching rising political star Anita Anand to head Canada’s Treasury Board, a powerful but obscure department that acts as one of the nerve centers of government.

Anand was the face of Canada’s support to Ukraine in its war with Russia and defended Canada’s position at NATO amid pressure among allies for Canada to ramp up its defense spend, despite it lacking the capacity to do so.

Blair will step into managing those hot files now, raising questions about how his approach will differ.

On the same day south of the border, Lt. Gen. Gregory Guillot, nominated by President Joe Biden to assume command of NORAD, committed to have tough conversations with Canada about pulling its weight on defense spending when pressed at his confirmation hearings by Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).

The changes come as the prime minister moves to shore up his position and rearrange key players two years into his government, roughly the halfway point to the next election.

Anand is taking what could be considered a promotion or a lateral move to a department respected in Ottawa but generally unidentifiable to Canadians outside the capital.

Although not everyone sees it that way.

The Opposition Conservatives saw it as a clear demotion, with the party’s leader Pierre Poilievre describing it as “more disrespect for women in Justin Trudeau’s cabinet.”

D/C: All I can say is that this might be seen as a slap in the face to US, NATO and NORAD in particular .. wish the PMO would get it face out of navel gazing politics and come up for air once in a while to look at the bigger international picture!!

CTV: Nuclear threat from Ukraine war prompts Ottawa to update plans for catastrophe

A view of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant and the Dnipro river on the other side of Nikopol, Ukraine are shown on August 22, 2022.(THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP, Evgeniy Maloletka)

OTTAWA –

“Canada is dusting off and updating emergency protocols to deal with fallout from a possible tactical nuclear exchange in Europe or the spread of radiation across the ocean from a Ukrainian power plant explosion.”Canada is dusting off and updating emergency protocols to deal with fallout from a possible tactical nuclear exchange in Europe or the spread of radiation across the ocean from a Ukrainian power plant explosion.”

However Ottawa is still totally unprepared for multi -emergencies since it disbanded the emergency group years ago, and two AG reports later nothing much has happened. Given that the government has moved to cell phones instead of land line pulse phones, one wonders how we communicate in case of cell tower damage!

MARK’S VIEWS: He spent several years watching the emergency preparedness in government disappear (not only COVID).

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2014/07

https://mark3ds.wordpress.com/2016/12/15/mark-collins-public-safety-canadas-emergency-management-may-suck/

Mark was dismayed by the break-up of the central emergency team as it was disbanded into lots of small groups in other government agencies with no central command and training!!!

D/C

Mark Collins – Can Canada Afford 65 F-35s if Government Chooses the Plane?

An interesting leak at the Ottawa Citizen:

Rising F-35 price tag setting up tough choices, DND report suggests

A new Defence Department report says the cost of the F-35 has continued to rise, and suggests the Conservative government will face a tough choice if it goes ahead with the controversial stealth fighter.

In particular, the government may be forced to pony up an extra $1 billion or else cut back on the number of aircraft as a result of the weaker Canadian dollar, inflationary changes, and other countries slashing their own orders.

The F-35 annual update obtained by the Citizen presents the most up-to-date cost estimates for the stealth fighter. The reports are part of a government promise to inject more transparency after the auditor general blasted its handling of the project in 2012 [the reports are for Parliament, see 3. here–the 2014 one does not yet appear at the National Fighter Procurement Secretariat (NFPS) website.

The Conservative government has refused to say whether it plans to move ahead with buying the F-35 or hold an open competition, and it has not set a timeline on when a decision will be made. Most analysts don’t expect a decision until after next year’s federal election.

In the report, National Defence assumes it will begin receiving the first of 65 F-35s in 2020, and that the last will be delivered in 2025 [emphasis added, see ‘“Aviation Week” on Canada’s New Fighter, CF-18 Service Extension to 2025‘]…

…[There] was an increase in the expected cost of buying the F-35s, that cut into contingency funds set aside for future problems.

Specifically, National Defence now has only $76 million in wiggle room for purchasing 65 F-35s within the Conservative government’s self-imposed $9-billion budget envelope as the price of buying the warplanes rose $266 million, or three per cent.

Defence officials estimate they will actually need more than $1 billion in contingency funds to protect against the effects of a weaker Canadian dollar, inflation and other countries cutting back on how many planes they purchase.

The report suggests that if an extra $1 billion is needed, “the remaining shortfall could be met by buying fewer aircraft.” It adds that the government “will consider the frozen acquisition envelope,” suggesting the $9-billion cap could be removed.

An attached government-commissioned review of National Defence’s numbers by Quebec accounting firm Raymond Chabot Grant Thornton noted defence officials had not actually studied whether it was feasible to buy fewer than 65 F-35s [earlier work by the firm here]…

But see what was said almost exactly three years ago, when the RCAF’s first F-35s were planned for 2016 (four-year slip now!):

The ability to defend the skies and operate overseas at the same time would be in peril if the Harper government buys fewer stealth fighters than planned, the head of the Royal Canadian Air Force said Monday [Dec. 12, 2011].

Lt.-Gen. Andre Deschamps said the air force would have to review how much “concurrent activity” it could handle if the number of radar-evading F-35s drop below the 65 aircraft the government has promised.

“The air force will live with whatever the government procures for us,” said Deschamps in an interview with The Canadian Press.

“In the end, it’s all about managing risk in delivering the defence mission. The number 65 gives us the capacity to cover all our missions with confidence.”..

Deschamps acknowledged that the number of F-35s is “subject to review,” but warned that the air force would be challenged to carry out missions “if the number of aircraft changes dramatically.”

The Harper government committed itself in July 2010 to the current number of multi-role fighters, but does not expect to begin taking delivery until 2016.

It is the smallest fleet the air force is able to live with given its current commitments to North American air defence, which requires at least 36 fighters to be set aside for NORAD missions [emphasis added–p. 36 here from 2006,”Current Canadian Air Defence Policy…In NORAD, the Canadian Forces are committed to provide 36 fighters for air sovereignty and homeland security…”; see also regarding NORAD ‘F-35 and Canada: Good for “Discretionary” Missions, But…‘]…

Relevant:

Canadian Government Officials: No F-35 Purchase/Swap

US FY 2015: 4 Additional F-35s, 15 Growlers

Mark Collins, a prolific Ottawa blogger, is a Fellow at the Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Institute; he tweets @Mark3Ds