A file photo shows Canadian Forces Chief Warrant Officer Bob McCann talking to Canadian military personnel at NORAD in the United States. Photo by NORAD /HANDOUT
Canada’s soldiers are leaving the ranks because of toxic military leadership, a top adviser to the chief of the defence staff has warned.
Canadian Forces Chief Warrant Officer Bob McCann highlighted his warning April 23 during an appeal for changes in how leaders dealt with lower ranks.
Job dissatisfaction and repeated moves to new locations across the country have been cited in past military reports as the top reasons that Canadian Forces personnel leave.
But McCann, who advises Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre on issues relating to non-commissioned members, said personnel weren’t just quitting because they were being moved to locations they did not want to be.
“A lot of our members leave this organization not necessarily because they are not going where they want to be,” he explained to the audience of officers during a virtual town hall. “They leave because of toxic leadership or bad leadership. This is one aspect that we need to address if we are going to support our members better as they serve.”
Eyre and McCann held the virtual townhall to discuss the Liberal government’s updated defence policy as well as the future direction of the Canadian Forces.
National Defence declined a request to release the video, noting it was for internal use only. But a copy was leaked to this newspaper by military staff who have grown increasingly frustrated with attempts to clamp down on information that could be considered embarrassing to the senior leadership or the Liberal government.
It is common for military leaders to state that the welfare of their personnel is a top priority, but there are concerns in the ranks that such statements constitute only lip service.
During the townhall, Eyre noted that Canada had become a more urbanized country while the vast majority of the military’s bases and installations were located away from major population centres.
“Enticing members and families who grew up in these larger urban centres to move to these remoter locations is going to be an ongoing challenge, one that we cannot fix by building bases in downtown Toronto, for example, because that is just not reasonable,” Eyre said. “So cracking the code on this is going to be increasingly important.”
Various reports done for the Canadian Forces have cited a desire for “geographic stability” and “job dissatisfaction” as reasons that personnel leave the ranks. Others include the need for more pay and benefits as well as military personnel having issues with senior or unit-level leadership.
In October 2023, this newspaper reported that Canadian Forces personnel were increasingly leaving the ranks rather than moving to new military bases where they couldn’t afford housing.
Brig.-Gen. Virginia Tattersall outlined ongoing problems with military accommodation in a June 14, 2023, briefing to senior staff, adding that Canadian Forces personnel who stayed in one location “have a significant financial advantage relative to members who move most often.”
“Increasingly, members will release (from the Canadian Forces) rather than relocate to an area they cannot afford or taking a loss on an existing home,” Tattersall’s briefing noted. That document was leaked to this newspaper.
Canada is in the midst of a housing crisis, but some members of the military are particularly vulnerable as they are required to move around the country often for their jobs.
Military personnel who move more frequently are exposed to “to higher prices and rates more often,” Tattersall’s briefing said.
“Average cost to purchase or rent housing now exceeds incomes of several CAF working-rank levels,” she added.
Military personnel are increasingly becoming frustrated with the lack of action by the Canadian Forces senior leadership on the housing situation, defence sources say.
In 2022, Eyre acknowledged that a lack of affordable housing had emerged as one of the main complaints made by military personnel to senior officers.
David Pugliese is an award-winning journalist covering Canadian Forces and military issues in Canada.
D/C: One of many massive problems that need to be addressed!!!Not the least paying our way in NATO and getting due respect from the government. Canada’s international reputation has shrunk in so many ways. Canada is NOT back.
Exclusive: Key defence contractor says UK’s capabilities are ‘very limited’ as a result of long-term under-investmen
Daniel Boffey Chief reporterSun 12 May 2024 17.10 BSTLast modified on Sun 12 May 2024 20.15 BST
Britain’s air defence systems are “very limited, to the point of being negligible”, a key defence contractor has claimed, as the Ministry of Defence warned of the gravest risk of attack from the skies in 30 years.
Northrop Grumman UK, a leading provider of defence technology to the RAF and Royal Navy, offered its assessment in response to questioning by a parliamentary committee examining lessons to be learned from the war in Ukraine.
Asked whether there was a need for increased investment in integrated air and missile defence (IAMD), the company said Britain’s lack of capacity was a major risk to national security.
“Current capabilities are very limited, to the point of being negligible, which is the result of long-term under-investment and an over-reliance on Nato partners’ capabilities,” the company said. “This capability gap poses a significant risk to national security and the war demonstrates why IAMD is now a critical requirement.”
The intervention ranks among the starkest of public assessments of Britain’s state of readiness by an organisation with intimate knowledge of the country’s defence. Northrop Grumman UK supports the RAF’s F-35 Lightning II and the Royal Navy’s aircraft carriers and submarine fleet, which are key pillars of Britain’s air defence.
The company negatively contrasted the UK’s capacity to deal with an air salvo to that of Poland, whose government recently signed a $2.5bn deal with the US government to acquire a system that will synchronise its air defence weapons, including Patriot missile launchers.
“Put simply, the UK must strengthen investment in IAMD,” the company said. “This will require an investment in the architecture that delivers true integration, as Poland has done, alongside an investment in sensors and effectors. The investment required to protect military capability, government and critical national infrastructure will require significant resources. However, Russia has shown itself willing to target all three in this war and the UK is within effective weapons range of Russian systems.”
The comments echo a recent report from the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), which found that the UK’s ground-to-air systems were “not currently equipped to be able to defeat many kinds of air threat” and that Russian submarines were within range to strike the UK without warning.
The number of personnel with expertise in air defences was said to be “very small”, and the government had not invested in the latest, most sophisticated systems that use a range of radars that are difficult to destroy or deceive.
The MoD relies on RAF Lightning and Typhoon jets to take out rogue aircraft and the Royal Navy’s six Type-45 destroyers to shoot missiles out of the sky, but many of these have been out of action for prolonged periods for maintenance or repair.
Six Sky Sabre ground-based air defence systems are each able to shoot down multiple missiles but at least two are understood to be currently deployed overseas.skip past newsletter promotion
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The MoD said in its own evidence to the House of Lords committee that it was exploring how to improve its air defences.
Officials said: “The challenge of protecting ourselves against attack from the skies, both overseas and at home, is at its most acute for over 30 years – as evidenced in the war in Ukraine and recent events in Israel.”
Last month Adm Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the defence staff, told LBC that discussions were taking place about building an Iron Dome similar to that used by Israel. The technology is designed to use radar to detect rockets and calculate their threat level. Interceptor missiles are only fired at those expected to strike populated areas.
A MoD spokesperson said: “The UK is well prepared for any event and defence of the UK would be taken alongside our Nato allies. As part of our commitment to increase UK defence spending to 2.5% over the next six years, we continue to review potential opportunities to develop our capabilities and modernise air defence across Europe in close discussion with allies and partners.”
D/C: Canada and UK seem to be in the same boat in terms of budget and maintenance!!
The Norwegian Government is proposing to parliament a historic increase in defence spending with 600 billion kroner over the next 12 years, from this year to 2036 (approx. 60 billion USD). It is a historic boost for the Armed Forces. All services of the Norwegian Armed Forces will be strengthened, with more personnel and new capabilities.
‘Providing security for the people of Norway is the Government’s most fundamental task. We need a defence that is fit for purpose in the emerging security environment. This plan represents a historic boost in defence spending, and involves a significant strengthening of all branches of the Armed Forces’, says Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
The Norwegian Government is proposing to parliament a historic increase in defence spending with 600 billion kroner over the next 12 years, from this year to 2036 (approx. 60 billion USD). Credit: Torbjørn Kjosvold / Ministry of Defence.
The Norwegian Government propose to spend a total of NOK 1624 billion on Norway’s defence over the next twelve years, until 2036. By then, the defence budget will be almost twice as large as it is today, measured in real value.
‘Norway is a maritime nation with a strong maritime legacy. The Government commits to strengthening the Navy, with new frigates, submarines and other vessels. The plan also involves a robust air defence package, including Norway’s first long-range air defence system. We will also strengthen the land forces by expanding the Army from one to three brigades and increasing the Home Guard to a total of 45,000 soldiers’, Støre says.
‘As our security environment is deteriorating, we need to spend more on and pay more attention to defence and preparedness. Norway is in a unique position to take action. Our model of securing income for society from our natural resources, enable us to increase national security spending, without a cut in people’s public services’, says Minister of Finance, Trygve Slagsvold Vedum. He adds: ‘Our proposed defence investments will benefit the whole country in several ways. When we spend so much on defence, it must be in a way which creates Norwegian jobs and investments.’
The Government will prioritise the following main areas:
Improve the current defence structure: Improve current and critical deficiencies, including an increase in stocks of munitions and materiel, maintain buildings and important infrastructure, increase reception capacity for allied reinforcements and employ more people.
Invest in the people of the Armed Forces: Before 2036, the Government plans for around 4,600 more conscripts, 13,700 more reservists and 4,600 more employees, and a major boost in competence.
A strong maritime package: The Navy will get a minimum of five new frigates with anti-submarine helicopters, at least five new submarines, and a standardised vessel class of up to ten large and eighteen smaller vessels. In terms of money, the strengthening of the Navy is the largest investment in this long-term plan.
More and improved air defence: The Government will purchase long-range air defence systems to protect against short-range ballistic missiles. In addition, the quantity of the existing NASAMS air defence will be doubled, which will be upgraded to improve protection against drones and missiles. Both the Air Force and the Army will receive more systems, and the current air defence systems will be updated.
Stronger Army and Home Guard: The Army is being developed from one to three brigades, one in the northernmost county Finnmark, one in Troms, and a new Brigade South. Investments will follow on long-range precision firepower, additional combat vehicles, air defence, and helicopters for the Army and special forces. The Home Guard will increase to a total of 45,000 soldiers and with improved capabilities.
Improve situational awareness: Increase the ability to create situational awareness with more surveillance, presence, and control in our surrounding areas, through the use of new vessels and the expansion of satellite and drone capabilities.
‘Norway is no threat to anyone, nor is NATO. But we must have the capability to defend ourselves if crisis and war occur. A stronger national defence will contribute to deter those who might wish to threaten our sovereignty,’ says Støre.
‘We must have a military focused on active conflict prevention every day and yet prepared to handle conflict. Increased activity requires more personnel. Our Armed Forces will be strengthened with over 20,000 conscripted soldiers, employees, and reservists in total,’ says Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram.
The Government will implement a historic strengthening of the Armed Forces. To succeed, multiple efforts must be implemented simultaneously. Addressing critical deficiencies in today’s defence is a prerequisite for further growth.
‘We need to invest in infrastructure, not just for today’s defence but also for a defence set for growth. We need to increase educational capacity to meet the need for more personnel, and we must allocate enough funds to replenish the emergency stockpiles. This is essential to avoid ending up with an imbalanced force structure, where vessels are docked, and aircraft are parked,’ says Gram.
The long-term plan will require significant resources, more employees, and large investments. Therefore, the Government is presenting a plan for the next twelve years.
‘The plan commits this Government, future governments, and the Parliament over time. It provides predictability and long-term stability for people and investments in the Armed Forces, and this commitment sends an important signal to our allies and others,’ says Prime Minister Støre.
The Nordics in NATO
Norwegian security is dependent on NATO and our close allies. Strengthened capability to receive allied reinforcements throughout the Nordic region, and the ability to operate together with allied forces, including Sweden and Finland, is crucial. Through the initiatives in the long-term plan, the Government aims to meet key NATO capability targets.
’75 years in the world’s strongest military and political alliance has secured the peace and provided Norway’s security guarantee. Finnish and Swedish NATO membership is a strength to security in our region, but also a new obligation to Norway. We must rapidly transform from not just a receiving country of allied reinforcements but also a transit and contributing ally to the defence and security of the entire Nordic and Baltic region,’ says Defence Minister Gram.
A call for a political settlement
In recent months, the Government has had close contact and meetings with the parliamentary leaders of the parties in Parliament and with the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defence.
‘The Government thanks for the constructive dialogue with all parties, and invites the Parliament to a broad political settlement on this historic plan. It is of great importance that we stand together in safeguarding Norway,’ says Støre.
D/C: The war is on their doorstep. We need to do much more and spend much more to help!! Way to go Norway.
Norway hasn’t been overly quick to kick off their own zweitenwende – to the extent that just eighteen months ago the discussion was whether they could afford new tanks or not (a topic on which I had some opinions). But things can change quickly when there’s a will, and last Friday Norway launched one of the most ambitious rearmament plans seen in the post-2022 world. It’s good to have allies like these (assuming the government proposal passes the parliament, which it seems set to do).
A sense of urgency has clearly gripped the Norwegian government, and several of the planned procurements are on rather ambitious timelines. Tailormade solutions are nice, but we are too small for them to make sense and they take too long was the message delivered.
Growth
Both the budget and the defence forces will increase. Not only will Norway reach the 2% of GDP threshold already this year if the government gets the additional funds they want this spring (Sweden, take notice!), but the plan calls for defence spending to reach 3% by 2036. And there are a lot of issues you can fix by throwing an extra 57 billion Euro at them. This includes things that can be addressed (or at least ordered…) in short order, such as more munitions, spares, and larger fuel storages. We will also see significant investment in infrastructure and host nation support (HNS)-related capabilities to ensure the ability to receive aid from allies.
A key issue is personnel, as getting qualified personnel is not something that is done in an instant. The government does say all the right things – they will increase the number of conscripts significantly, as these constitute an important basis for recruitment to all positions within the force, and they will start training more officers. The NCO academy (Forsvarets Befalsskole) will also relocate to Kjevik in search of better facilities – which is quite the turnaround for the garrison in Southern Norway which was supposed shut down. To ensure retention, they are looking at wages and benefits, and doing so while discussing the question with the unions involved. Living quarters and living conditions in general are also looked at and are to be improved. The proof is in the pudding, but recognising this will be a significant aspect of whether the plan succeeds or fails is at least a good first step. And while the increase in conscripts and contracted personnel by 4,600 more in each category is significant, their numbers are overshadowed by the plan to add 13,700 reservists.
For Finland and Sweden, it might be worth starting to ask questions about the Norwegian ambitions for their operational headquarters, the Forsvarets operative hovedkvarter, which they happily describe as “the only joint operational headquarters in the Nordics that is fully compatible with NATO”, and the future of which will be adjusted according to NATO plans and Nordic cooperation. Did we read JFC Norfolk’s Land Component Command between the lines?
Ground Forces
The Army which until recently has struggled to put a single brigade together will grow to three. Okay, there’s a bit of fluff in those number, but the increase is significant. Brigade Nord will continue to be the premier fighting unit, with four mechanised battalions and supporting elements. Supporting it in the High North will be the new Finnmarksbrigaden situated closest to the Russian border. A single light infantry battalion will be added to the two battalions already found in the North-East – the border guards’ Jegerbataljon (GSV) and the light mechanised Porsanger bataljon – and the unit will receive an artillery battalion, organic air defences, a recce-company, and an engineering company. The brigade will also operate in close cooperation with the Home Guard in the region. The third brigade is Brigade Sør, which will be made up of reservists and set up in the south of the country. The main task will be to secure the capital region, but also to act as a mobile strategic response force. In addition, the Home Guard will grow to 45,000 soldiers, and receive better training and equipment.
The Porsanger bataljon in the High North is known for the large number of conscripts choosing a career in the defence forces. Now the battalion is set to be the core of one of Norway’s two standing brigades. Source: Norwegian Army FB
I wrote about the possibility of having a three brigade-strong multinational division in the High North a while ago, but with Sweden now planning for a Swedish division (with two brigades) for operations as part of a NATO corps-level headquarters in the region, and Norway bringing two brigades of their own, we might have to scrap those ideas. Instead it starts to look like we indeed will have a full allied army corps defending the region – a most welcome development in what traditionally has been a very sparsely defended area!
The Norwegian thinking around the value of long-range precision fires is well-known by now, and to the surprise of absolutely no-one a rocket-artillery battalion will also be set up. Ground-based air defences will also see significant increases, including more NASAMS-batteries, a long-range air defence unit able to counter short-range ballistic missiles, and more light systems.
Air
The Norwegian Air Force with a sizeable number of F-35A multirole fighters and five P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft have been the branch with the least issues for quite some time, and unsurprisingly there weren’t as many flashy headlines here. However, a number of significant improvements are heading their way, including an additional fifth C-130J Hercules as well as improvements to a number of air force bases. The value of these for the Finnish and Swedish Air Forces as well is obvious, and it is a welcome development from a force that at one point seemed to be putting too many eggs in the same basket.
The major change when it comes to platforms will be the venerable Bell 412 retiring, with a new transport helicopter being acquired for tactical transport and special forces duty. The schedule is rather tight, with deliveries of the new system being finished by the end of 2032.
Naval
The largest piece of the cake when measured in funds goes to the Navy (including the Coast Guard). I wrote a piece over at Naval News, but to recap the motley collection of patrol vessels, mine countermeasure vessels, and auxiliaries will be replaced by two standardised designs – 10 vessels of a large class for offshore work and 18 of a medium one for coastal work – with modular sensors and weapons. The order for Type 212CD submarines will be raised from four to five with options for a sixth, and there will be investments in air- and space-based sensors for monitoring the maritime domain – including additional resources and a brand new simulator for the P-8 Poseidon-fleet at Evenes (Harstad/Narvik) as well as long-endurance drones with a particular eye towards maritime surveillance in the High North.
The standardised designs will share as much commonality as possible to create synergies when it comes to acquisitions and maintenance, but also when it comes to training and aiding with transferring personnel from one class to another. They will be based on civilian standards adjusted for military needs, and the roles include patrol, offensive and defensive mine warfare, and limited ASW-capability. An interesting detail is that – in line with general comments on the press conference – the vessels will be built with an eye to changing propulsion at some point during their career away from fossil fuels, as the defence forces can’t be left running on fossils in 2060 if the rest of society has moved on. The specifications sounds somewhat like Norwegian defence powerhouse Kongsberg’s Vanguard-concept, which might or might not be what the MoD has in mind. What is clear however is that throughout the fleet plan, involving the Norwegian maritime industry is a stated aim, and the order for 28 modern vessels seems like a prime candidate to provide work for Norwegian shipyards.
The Vanguard-concept, looking like a potential new standardised design for the Navy and Coast Guard. Source: Kongsberg
The Type 212CD submarines is a joint German-Norwegian program for a submarine significantly larger than either the German 212A-class or the Norwegian (German-built) Ula-class. So far Germany has two boats on order and Norway has had four on order – building of the first having started last fall. This will now be raised by one additional order, with an option for a sixth one (my understanding is that Norway as part of the original contract has had an option for boats five and six, so it remains to be seen whether this refers to a lengthening of the option for boat number six, or how the paperwork will look). Notable is that Norway has six Ula-class in service (with plans to retire two and soldier on with four), so while an argument can be made that the 212CD will be able to spend longer times on patrol and generally have better availability thanks to being newer, a five-boat fleet would still cut the number of hulls by one. Delivery of boat number one for Norway is slated for 2029, and the German and Norwegian vessels are referred to as “identical“. Keep those two data points in mind.
For the maritime patrol drones, the goal is to have them as part of the activities at Andøya, which contrary to earlier decisions won’t be closed, but instead will be developed into a centre for space and surveillance capabilities. The drones will also be acquired as part of an international users group, as the number of Norwegian platforms is expected to be very limited, leading to the need to split certification, training, and maintenance costs with other users. This is all part of the goal – with its own subheading in the report – of making Norway the alliance member with the best situational picture in the High North.
The single largest item in the whole plan is the acquisition of five new frigates – with options for a sixth – to replace the four remaining frigates of the Fridtjof Nansen-class. This has the possibility of being one of the more interesting naval programs, because the Norwegians plan on acquiring them fast. Very fast.
The vessels will be multipurpose frigates with the ability to fight enemies in the air, on the surface, and underwater, but an emphasis is placed on ASW. For this purposes, they will also be equipped with ASW-helicopters, something which the Norwegians currently lack after they packed up their NH 90 and shipped them back to the factory. The NH 90 was ordered for both Coast Guard and ASW-duties, and while the urgent needs for the Coast Guard is being handled by an extremely quick buy of MH-60R Seahawks – the ordered was placed only last year, with first delivery in 2026 thanks to US Navy handing over slots in the production queue – there has been no order for ASW-helicopters as of yet. While the MH-60R is certainly more than capable of fulfilling the ASW-role as well, it was not named as the chosen platform for the frigates.
However, it is hard not to see the Seahawk-buy as having inspired the government when it comes to what can be achieved if one really wants it. The experience with having the tailored Nansen-design and having to pay for the maintenance, training pipelines, and upgrades alone has also apparently been a less than happy one, and there will now be a full U-turn. The new frigates will be ordered according to what is operated by a “close ally” (a wording that is significantly stricter than just the general “allies” found in the alliance), and when asked about it on the press conference the Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram went as far as using the word “identical” and drawing comparisons to the 212CD-program. Ordering them to an identical standard is probably also the only option if Norway really plans on getting the first vessel delivered by 2029.
Yes, they plan on getting a frigate they haven’t even ordered yet delivered within five years.
It’s not completely out of the realm of possibility – FREMM-class frigates which in complexity roughly corresponds to what Norway is looking for regularly have seen a building time from being laid down to being commissioned of four to five years – but it almost certainly will require an order placed within the next few months, and of a – as Gram said – identical design to one that is already in production. It might even require not just a hot production line, but one where the host nation is ready to give up a production slot or two.
So, who could this “close ally” be, who is able to build an ASW-centred multirole frigate for delivery by 2029, and preferably one which uses the Norwegian Naval Strike Missile (NSM) as its main anti-ship missile (the latter requirement is just my guess, the Proposition doesn’t explicitly mention the crown jewel of Norwegian arms export)?
The materiel cooperation with the United Kingdom also show good development after the United Kingdom has, among other things, acquired NSM. The United Kingdom is the most important country in Europe for early reinforcement of Norway in crisis and war. Continued prioritization of cooperation with the United Kingdom will become even more important for our security in the years to come. The collaboration has developed to also include the most modern weapon systems, so-called fifth-generation platforms. The cooperation is particularly important within the maritime domain, in areas such as anti-submarine operations, intelligence cooperation, maritime surveillance and presence.Prop. 87 S (2023 –2024) Proposisjon til Stortinget (forslag til stortingsvedtak) Forsvarsløftet – for Norges trygghet Langtidsplan for forsvarssektoren 2025–2036
There are some frigate designs that might fit the bill. The Constellation-class is built by the “close ally” the USA, but it isn’t looking too hot right now. Germany’s F126 frigate is literally the size of French super-dreadnoughts and might be too much of a jump in size. The original FREMM-class or the Spanish F110 might be an opportunity, but Norway usually doesn’t talk about France, Italy, or Spain when it mentions “close allies”. The Dutch-Belgian ASWF potentially, but the schedule is cutting it close. The obvious answer is the UK, which has not only one but two frigates that looks suitable. Of these, the Type 31/Arrowhead 140 reportedly won’t be offered, to increase the chances of the Type 26. The Type 26 has already scored two export orders, with Canada choosing it for their Canadian Surface Combatant program and Australia as their Hunter-class. Both of these configurations will however be delivered only in the early 2030’s (again highlighting what is the usual timespan for projects of this calibre), leaving the UK City-class. The program has seen delays, but delivery of the lead ship HMS Glasgow is still set for 2026 with an initial operational capability by 2028. The build time for the vessels has been slow, but that is in no small part down to budgetary concerns and trying to even out the workload for the yard – which also means that they really would like to receive an export order to build a few more frigates at home. While the Royal Navy is already battling with a frigate force literally being worked until they are falling apart and struggling to keep up with demands of the current operational tempo, the political and financial benefits means I wouldn’t be surprised if HMS Belfast suddenly became Sleipner. And while there are some talk about Norway really wanting an AEGIS-ship, the impression I get from the official documents and the press conference is that focus is elsewhere. Speed of delivery. ASW-capable. Operated by a close ally.
HMS Glasgow having just been lowered into the water at BAE Systems Scotstoun on the Clyde. Source: Royal Navy
…and of course, one shouldn’t forget that it was HMS Glasgow that back in 1940 whisked not only the king and crown prince, but also the government and part of the gold reserve, away from advancing German forces. Something the British embassy wasn’t slow to remind the Norwegians of.
An interesting question to ponder: does “identical” mean that the new ASW-helicopter will be the AW159 Wildcat, or even the mighty Merlin HM2? Norway is after all a former Lynx-operator, and the AW101 is already in Norwegian Air Force service as the SAR Queen.
D/C: Note Canada’s contribution “The Type 26 has already scored two export orders, with Canada choosing it for their Canadian Surface Combatant program and Australia as their Hunter-class. Both of these configurations will however be delivered only in the early 2030’s (again highlighting what is the usual time-span for projects of this calibre),“
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said he was aiming for a “war-ready” military, with a new central command and a branch specializing in cyber warfare planned.
Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced plans for a major restructuring of the military on Thursday.
The changes include the establishment of a fourth branch of the armed forces that specializes in cyber warfare, which will operate alongside the army, the air force and the navy.
The expanded Cyber and Information Domain Service (CIR) will be tasked with fending off cyberattacks, protecting electronic infrastructure and analyzing disinformation and other hybrid threats.
It’s the latest step in an overhaul of the German military, or Bundeswehr, that was launched in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
“No one should have the idea of attacking us as a NATO territory. We have to convey this credibly and truthfully,” Pistorius told a press conference in Berlin.
German military under new central command
The four branches of the military will operate under new central command, combining two previously separate structures for domestic and foreign deployments.
This central command is intended to enable quick decision-making, eliminate overlap and also act as a unified point of contact for NATO.
Pistorius has repeatedly said the German military must become “war-ready” in response to threats from Russia.
“I am convinced it is one of the few words that really describes correctly the imperative here,” he told reporters in Berlin.
“I respect the fact that others struggle with the word, but I also note that most who do have no problem with the substance behind it.”
Russia is NATO’s ‘number 1 threat’
What’s next for the Bundeswehr?
While announcing the changes, Pistorius said the Bundeswehr would need an additional €6.5 billion ($7.06 billion) in its budget for 2025.
He did not make any announcements on a possible reintroduction of military service — which has been debated in recent months — but said he planned to present a paper on various models later this month.
Mette Frederiksen made announcement at Munich Security Conference and appealed to other European nations to do more to help Ukraine
Pledge comes as Ukrainian forces withdrew from eastern town of Avdiivka amid severe munitions shortages
Denmark is sending its “entire artillery” to Ukraine, the Danish prime minister has said.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, Mette Frederiksen appealed to other European nations to do more to help Ukraine in its fight against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invading forces.
“They are asking us for ammunition now. Artillery now. From the Danish side, we decided to donate our entire artillery,” she said.
“I’m sorry to say, friends, there are still ammunition in stock in Europe,” she said.
“This is not only a question about production, because we have weapons, we have ammunition, we have air defence that we don’t have to use ourself at the moment, that we should deliver to Ukraine.”
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen speaks at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. Photo: dpa
It comes as Ukrainian forces withdrew from the key eastern town of Avdiivka amid severe munitions shortages.
The Danish announcement will come as particularly welcome news in Ukraine as its military has been starved of artillery shells, forcing it to scale back some operations, Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavsky told Reuters in December.
“There’s a problem with ammunition, especially post-Soviet [shells] – that’s 122mm, 152mm. And today, these problems exist across the entire front line,” he said.
The Czech Republic also said it could supply 800,000 shells to the Ukrainian military.
Czech President Petr Pavel said in a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday that it had a stockpile of about half a million 155mm and 300,000 122mm shells, which can be on the Ukraine front line in a few weeks “if funding is found quickly”.
Denmark has been a key supporter of Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the Nordic country’s military aid commitments increased by €3.5 billion, or around US$3.8 billion, since November – making it one of the biggest military donors by percentage of GDP, the institute says.
Denmark has pledged €8.4 billion, around US$9 billion, in military aid.
With a crucial US$60 billion US aid package stalled in the US Congress, European support is becoming ever more important for Ukraine.
Earlier this year, the European Union agreed to a new €50 billion, or around US$53.9 billion, aid package for Ukraine.
“This locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine. The EU is taking leadership and responsibility in support for Ukraine; we know what is at stake,” President of the European Council Charles Michel said at the time, Reuters reported.
Czech Republic President Petr Pavel, left, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany on Saturday. Photo: EPA-EFE / Presidential Press Service Handout
Meanwhile, Russian troops launched multiple attacks to the west of the recently captured Avdiivka in a bid to force more gains on the battlefield, Ukrainian army spokesman Dmytro Lykhovy said on Sunday.
Facing manpower and ammunition shortages, Ukraine was forced to withdraw from the industrial hub in the eastern Donetsk region, handing Moscow its first major territorial gain since May 2023.
“The enemy is trying to actively develop its offensive,” Lykhovy, a spokesman for the army commander leading Kyiv’s troops in the area, said on state television.
Ukraine’s general staff reported 14 failed Russian attacks on the village of Lastochkyne, around 2km (one mile) to the west of Avdiivka’s northern edge.
“But our considerable forces are entrenched there,” Lykhovy said.
Lykhovy also reported failed Russian attacks near the villages of Robotyne and Verbove in the southern Zaporizhzhia region – one of the few places where Ukraine managed to regain ground during last year’s counteroffensive.
But he said it would be “very difficult” for Russia to break through there, given heavy Ukrainian defensive lines and natural conditions of the terrain.
“The situation in the Zaporizhzhia sector is stable. No positions have been lost in the Zaporizhzhia sector,” he said.
“The enemy was kicked in the teeth and retreated,” he added.
Ukrainian army chief Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky, right, and Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s defence minister, at an undisclosed location in eastern Ukraine. Photo: Handout / Armed Forces of Ukraine / AFP
Putin on Saturday hailed the capture of Avdiivka as an “important victory” for his troops, just days ahead of the second anniversary of the invasion.
Russia’s capture of the town has raised fears its forces could now try to advance further into the Donetsk region, which it claims to have annexed.
Kyiv’s newly installed commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky vowed on Sunday his forces would “eventually return to our Ukrainian Avdiivka”.
Concerns are growing in Kyiv and the West over Ukraine’s ability to thwart a renewed Russian offensive without unlocking the stalled US aid package.
US President Joe Biden on Saturday directly blamed Congress, where political wrangling has held up a Ukrainian aid bill since last year, for Kyiv’s loss of the town.
“Ukraine’s military was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka after Ukrainian soldiers had to ration ammunition due to dwindling supplies as a result of congressional inaction, resulting in Russia’s first notable gain in months,” the White House said in a readout of a call between Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Gen Sanders said that in the last 30 years, the British army has halved in size.
Ministry of Defence clarifies it has no plans for conscription after Gen Sir Patrick Sanders says UK should take steps to place society on war footing
Dan Sabbagh, defence editor, and Peter Walker, deputy political editorWed 24 Jan 2024 17.06 GMTFirst published on Wed 24 Jan 2024 12.56 GMT
Downing Street has dismissed a warning from the head of the British army that the UK public must be prepared to take up arms in a war against Vladimir Putin’s Russia because today’s professional military is too small.
Rishi Sunak’s spokesperson said the prime minister did not agree with comments made by Gen Sir Patrick Sanders in a speech on Wednesday, and was forced to insist there would be no return to national service, which was abolished in 1960.
“Hypothetical scenarios” involving possible future wars was “not helpful”, the No 10 spokesperson added, as the row opened up a rift between the Conservatives and the military at a time when cuts mean the army is at its smallest for more than 300 years.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) also distanced itself from the speech, which was released by the British army on behalf of the senior general, who is due to leave in the summer, having missed out on becoming head of the armed forces three years ago.
Speaking at a military conference, Sanders starkly described the British people as part of a “prewar generation” who may have to prepare themselves to fight in a war against an increasingly aggressive Russia. The chief of general staff highlighted the example of Sweden, which has just reintroduced a form of national service as it closes in on joining Nato.
During the speech in London, the army chief said the UK needed to broadly follow Stockholm’s example and take “preparatory steps to enable placing our societies on a war footing”. Such action was “not merely desirable, but essential”, he added.
The foundations for “national mobilisation” could not be confined to countries neighbouring or close to Russia, and as a result ordinary people in the UK would be forced to join the UK’s 74,110 full-time regular army to see off an active threat to mainland Europe.
He said: “We will not be immune and as the prewar generation we must similarly prepare – and that is a whole-of-nation undertaking. Ukraine brutally illustrates that regular armies start wars; citizen armies win them.”
Sanders has previously complained publicly and privately about defence cuts. A year ago, in an attempt to ensure politicians plugged the gap with future spending, he warned that gifts of weapons to Ukraine would “leave us temporarily weaker”.
Such public arguments over money have led him into conflict with the MoD, amid reports of clashes with the chief of defence staff, Adm Sir Tony Radakin. Some allies believe Sanders should have been promoted to replace Radakin, but he was asked to step down early after serving two of three years as army chief.
In his speech, Sanders said the cold war peace dividend was over, noting that “over the last 30 years, the army has been halved in size; in the last 12 years, we’ve absorbed a 28% reduction”. Recruitment remained a challenge, he said, although applications to join were “the highest in six years”.
Before Sanders gave his speech, the MoD issued a clarification, saying it had no plans to advocate a return to national service.
“The British military has a proud tradition of being a voluntary force and there is absolutely no suggestion of a return to conscription,” the MoD said, adding that £50bn was being invested in the military during the current year.
With an election looming, the military is hoping politicians make further pledges over defence spending. Labour has avoided making any firm spending commitments, but has criticised cuts to the size of the army and promised to launch a defence review if elected.
Grant Shapps, the defence secretary, this month repeated that the UK wants to increase defence spending from 2.1% of GDP to 2.5% in the future.
But Sanders said: “The army has a generous £44bn programme over 10 years, but that money is just 18% committed. During an electoral cycle, uncommitted money is vulnerable.”
Over the next few days, as one of Taiwan’s most senior politicians touches down in the United States, observers are anticipating that China could take another opportunity to flex its military muscles.
China has ratcheted up military and political pressure on its democratically governed neighbour over the last three years, and has repeatedly voiced its opposition to friendly relations between Taiwan and the US.
Beijing considers Taiwan part of its territory, and it hasn’t ruled out the use of force to achieve reunification.
As part of China’s show of strength, its presence in the Taiwan Strait has been steadily increasing, including within Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
And with another US trip on the cards by Taiwan’s Vice-President William Lai, the frontrunner to be the island’s next leader, it appears likely that this activity could kick off again.
Where is the Taiwan Strait and what’s the ADIZ?
Taiwan sits about 180 kilometres off the coast of China, near Fuzhou in the south-eastern province of Fujian.
The Taiwan Strait is the body of water that separates the self-governed island from mainland China.
Around the midway point between China and Taiwan in the strait is what’s called the median line — devised with the help of the US during the Cold War, it was never formally recognised by China, but has generally been respected.
Taiwan monitors and patrols an area it calls the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), which extends beyond its territorial airspace and includes parts of mainland China.
Other countries including the US, China, Japan and South Korea also operate their own ADIZs, but several of those in east Asia overlap with one another.
In the case of Taiwan, the international community generally only acknowledges the portion that is south and east of that median line as Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ.
Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ includes areas to the south and east of the median line, according to this updated map based on a briefing from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence in April 2023.(Supplied: Louis Martin-Vezian, CIGeography)
Within that de facto zone, there are five regions: the median line sector closest to China, the north-east and east sectors near Japan, and the south and south-west sectors near the Philippines.
It’s these areas where Taiwan has noted a marked increase in Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) activity over the past three years.
China sends more military aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ after diplomatic visits
Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) publishes daily updates on PLA activity in the waters and airspace around Taiwan, noting whether any ships or aircraft cross the median line or enter the de facto ADIZ.
“The PLA essentially took that as an opportunity to erase the median line as a functional boundary in the Taiwan Strait,” Mr Lewis said.
“[That month], there were over 300 median line crossings … at the end of July of this year, we hit exactly 1,000 median line crossings, and only 23 of those have been before Nancy Pelosi arrived from Taiwan – so it’s been a dramatic shift.”
Mr Lewis says there is a real possibility of increased military activity in the strait in the next few weeks, while Taiwan’s Vice-President Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is travelling to the US.
These are officially considered “transits”, however Taiwanese leaders’ trips to the US are generally referred to this way.
Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, is considered the frontrunner for next year’s presidential election in Taiwan.(AP: Chiang Ying-ying)
Any official meetings Mr Lai might have while there are yet to be announced.
“It is a long-standing practice for Taiwan’s president and vice-president to travel to and make stopovers in other countries,” Taiwan’s Ministry of Affairs said in a statement last month.
“There is no reason for China to use the visit as a pretext to provoke, let alone to smear an innocent creature, in an attempt to create discord.”
“Many [observers] are concerned that if Lai wins the election, Taiwan authorities will become even more extreme in seeking secessionism, forcing the Chinese mainland to solve Taiwan question through more direct means,” Yang Sheng and Wang Qi wrote.
Chinese military aircraft laying low may be a sign of things to come
Mr Lewis says one sign to look out for would be a sudden drop-off in activity around Taiwan.
“I think that’s a really solid sign that they’re going to do something because they’re resetting the maintenance cycles of the aircraft,” he said.
In the past two weeks, the number of PLA aircraft spotted in Taiwan’s ADIZ has rarely exceeded 10 per day.
Weather could be a significant factor – two typhoons in the region would likely have made for difficult flying conditions.
However, MND’s data on the daily activity leading up to Ms Pelosi’s Taiwan visit in 2022 and Tsai Ing-wen’s US stopover in April this year show a similar pattern.
On both of these occasions, the activity in the strait significantly increased in the days following diplomatic visits — and experts anticipate we could see the same pattern in the coming weeks after Mr Lai’s US trip.
Hsiao-Huang Shu, from Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, believes it’s “inevitable”.
“The PLA is accustomed to using large-scale military operations during significant political events to convey political messages and express dissatisfaction with events such as visits by international friends, international expressions of support for Taiwan, and major US arms sales to Taiwan,” he said.
What does this tell us about China’s long-term strategy?
Bates Gill, executive director of the Asia Society’s Center for China Analysis, says there are a whole range of tactical advantages that China accrues by sending its ships and aircraft closer to Taiwan.
“The PLA gains intelligence about Taiwan, about its defences, about its communications, about its mobilisation capacity. They’re watching and listening and can learn a lot about Taiwan’s capabilities,” he said.
Looking at the types of aircraft that China is sending into the ADIZ may also provide an insight into its motivations, according to Mr Lewis.
“What we’ve seen is that large amounts of combat aircraft, so both fighter jets and bombers, are normally seen in response to a political developments in Taiwan, large and small,” he said.
“Especially what we’ve seen is that there’s a combination of median line incursions made by fighter jets, when there are political developments … either involving Taiwan or the United States in Asia.”
“It’s a better litmus test to see how angry Beijing is at this point, they’ve been doing it for so long, that you can really tell how upset they are based on what they sent over the median line.”
The MND data shows that of the 1,021 entries into the median line sector by Chinese PLA aircraft since September 2020, almost all of those were fighters — either SU-30, J-11, J-16 or J-11.
While spikes in activity have generated interest and sparked international headlines, Mr Lewis says the bigger concern is how the PLA’s daily activity is chipping away at previously accepted norms.
“There has been a slow progression towards altering the status quo in such a way that the Chinese can normalise using military forces to bully Taiwan,” he said.
He says normalising this behaviour could have serious implications not just around Taiwan, but across the region.
“The biggest risk that comes with that is that if you set a precedent that that kind of behaviour is acceptable it will be applied to anyone else that [China] has any kind of dispute within the region,” he said.
China describes its activities in the Taiwan Strait as combat readiness patrols and exercises.(Reuters: Tingshu Wang)
Dr Shu says the regularity of the PLA presence also contributes to a sense of tension for the Taiwanese public.
“The daily aerial and maritime incursions by China not only increase the burden on Taiwan’s military, especially its naval and air forces, but also contribute to a heightened atmosphere of tension in the Taiwan Strait,” he said.
“People are worried about the possibility that China might be preparing for, or even initiating, military actions against Taiwan in the coming years.”
Dr Gill agrees that China is gradually working to erode the status quo of the median line.
“On one level it is a salami-slicing tactic to steadily push the envelope and normalise the operations in a way that doesn’t provoke an overreaction from anyone, the US most of all,” he said.
But Dr Gill says there’s another reason for the general upward trend in China sending planes into the strait: the PLA needs the practice.
“The PLA has not faced a determined and well-armed enemy in a real war since the late 1970s, early ’80s, and of course a lot has changed since then in terms of warfare,” he said.
“What we’re talking about in terms of a Taiwan scenario is a vastly different operation and one that China has no experience performing, which I imagine would be an intimidating challenge.
“Part of the reason we don’t yet see a clear commitment to an invasion is because it would be very difficult, and you just don’t know how it’s going to end up in spite of numerical odds.”
In the meantime, Taiwan will be closely watching its skies.
An internal Defence Department report has found that a shortage of procurement officials is hindering efforts to buy much-needed equipment for the Canadian Armed Forces.
An internal Defence Department report has found that a shortage of procurement officials is hindering efforts to buy much-needed equipment for the Canadian Armed Forces.
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